Spooked.

I was going to write up my own mock draft, detailing what I think every lottery team should do, and then John Hollinger came out with this brilliant article, rating every collegiate player and showing how the system is much more reliable at predicting success than draft order. I now have no confidence in what I thought were my own thoughts.

Interestingly enough, according to Hollinger, the Bulls got the best player in 2004 and 2006 with Deng and Thomas, respectively. Thomas, in particular, was far and away the best choice. Hooray.

More importantly, the article shone some light on players whose success I and many others assumed was a given. Corey Brewer, Nick Young, Acie Law, and Julian Wright were all said to be way overrated. But the most overrated? None other than our man Spencer Hawes, who Hollinger calls a second-round prospect. I’ve been teetering on this for months now, but I think this column may have made up my mind. He writes:

“Hawes has an unimpressive rebound rate, which is a huge red flag considering he was bigger than everyone he played against. And for all the talk of his great post skills, he had a run-of-the-mill 55.0 true shooting percentage and didn't even have the best PER on his mediocre team (that belonged to Jon Brockman). A lot of folks think he can become a quality pro post player; based on his numbers, I just don't see it.”

This terrifies me. Hollinger isn’t wrong often, and when he is, it’s not by much. So I’ve made up my mind: The Bulls didn’t finally get out of the NBA cellar by taking 7-foot prospects. we did it by taking established college players who were assumed somewhat more flawed than they actually were just because of the higher degree of exposure (Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, even Duhon to a degree). We haven’t missed with a pick since ’02 (and even that was due to a tragic off-the-field accident). Let’s dance with the girl that brought us here get the best, most proven player we can.

Option A should be Zach Randolph. The guy’s a voracious low-post scorer, and that’s the one thing that the Bulls need to put them over the top. He’s a proven All-Star who’s just reaching his prime, and his minor character issues should hardly be an issue on this pristine Bulls team.

If we can’t trade the pick for Randolph, I say we draft Joakim Noah. He does all of the things P.J. Brown does except much, much better, and frankly, no one the Bulls can get in this draft is going to make near as much of a difference as improvements made by Gordon, Deng, Sefolosha, and especially, Thomas.

I would take Brandon Wright as well. He impressed me in the tourney with his athleticism, and if Skiles can’t get him to hustle, no one will.

There’s a pretty good chance one of the two will be available when the Bulls pick (it means only two of Yi, Jeff Green, Julian Wright, Corey Brewer, or even Hawes have been picked, because I’m assuming there’s no way Conley or Horford fall to the Bulls), so I’m optimistic. But taking Hawes would be a huge mistake. No matter what the situation is, wasting a lottery pick when there are more qualified candidates is devastating. We probably wouldn’t even find it necessary to discuss the Bulls’ championship aspirations if the Pistons had Carmelo, Bosh, or Wade right now.